Preparing for the Worst

Preparing for the Worst

"Is the crisis over?" is a question I am often asked. "Is the economy coming back?"
My reply is, "I don't think so. I would prepare for the worst."

Like most people, I wish for a better future for all of us. Life is better when people are working, happy, and spending money.

The stock market has been going up since March 9, 2009. Talk of "green shoots" fill the air. Yet, in spite of the more positive news, I continue to recommend that people prepare for the worst. The following are some of my reasons:

1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.

Do I have any proof that the market is being manipulated? No. I just smell a rat, or a pack of rats. I believe greed, self-interest, arrogance, and fear control the financial markets. I suspect those in charge will do anything to keep us all from panicking... and I don't blame them. A global panic would be ugly and dangerous.

2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.

Every time I hear a politician mention the word stimulus, my mind flashes back to high school biology class, when I touched battery wires to a dead frog to make it twitch. Today, you and I are the dead frogs. Pretty soon the dead frog will be fried frog.

In the 1980s, our government's hot money stimulus was measured only in the millions of dollars. By the 1990s, the government had to ramp the stimulus voltage into the billions in order to get the frog to twitch. Today the frog has jumper cables with trillions in high-voltage hot money pouring through the lines.

While most us feel better when we have more high-voltage money in our hands, none of us feel good about higher taxes, increasing national debt, and rising inflation for the long term. Another old saying goes, "Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease." I say the government stimulus cure is killing us frogs.

3. Old frogs don't hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years -- their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.

The stimulus plans seemed to work. But when a person turns 60, their spending habits change dramatically. They stop consuming and start conserving like a bear preparing for winter. The economy of the Western world is heading into winter. Hot wires and hot money will not get old frogs to hop. Old frogs will simply join the bears and stick that money in the bank as they prepare for the long, hard winter known as old age. The businesses that will do well in a winter economy are drug companies, hospitals, wheelchair manufacturers, and mortuaries.

4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it's my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare...Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.

5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire. One reason so many people my age are worried, not only about Social Security and Medicare, is because they're concerned about getting their money out of the stock market before the other old frogs decide to drain the swamp.

The facts are that the 401(k) plan has a trigger that requires old frogs to begin withdrawing their money at a certain age. In other words, as baby boomers grow older, more and more will be required, by law, to begin withdrawing their money from the market. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know that it is hard for a market to keep going up when more and more people are getting out.

The reason the 401(k) has this law related to mandatory withdrawals is because the Federal government wants to collect the taxes that they deferred when the worker's money went into the plan. In other words, the taxman wants their pound of flesh. Since they allowed the worker to invest without paying taxes, the government wants their tax dollars when the employee retires. That is why the laws require older workers to sell their shares ¬-- and pay their pound of flesh.

Demographics show that we are entering a battle between young and old. I call it the "Age War." The young want to hang onto their money to grow their families, businesses, and wealth. The old want the tax and investment dollars of the young to sustain their old age.

This war is not coming...it is upon us now. This is one of many reasons why I remain cautious and say, "The worst is yet to come."

Investors: Don't Be Average

Investors: Don't Be Average

I am often asked, "What advice do you have for the average investor?" My reply is, "Don't be average."

Most of us know of the 80/20 rule. That rule is a good rule for averages. And in the world of money, the rule is 90/10. This means 90 percent of the people make 10 percent of the money and 10 percent of the people make 90 percent of the money.

This 90/10 rule holds true in almost anything financial. Take the game of golf, for example. Ten percent of the professional golfers make 90 percent of the money.

Taking the ratio to the next level, the top 10 percent of professional golfers make 90 percent of the money. Just look at Tiger Woods. When you compare his winnings plus endorsements, he is in a league unto himself.

Last year, my wife Kim was invited to play in a pro-am as part of a professional Tour event in New York. (No, they did not invite me...) Kim is pretty good and was the only woman in a field of around 300 golfers. I was a proud husband as she confidently walked alone to the women's tee. Without hesitation, she placed her ball on the tee, took a clean back swing, and swung her club.

She out-drove two of the men in her five-some. Bruce Vaughn, the professional golfer in the group, rushed up to congratulate her. The men amateurs were also complimentary. I could tell they were relived to have a much better than average "woman golfer" in their group. Kim hits her drives longer than most men, myself included.

Tough Way to Earn a Living

The tournament was the first time I got to see the real life of a professional golfer. It is a tough life. It is not the glamour I thought it was. If a professional did not make the cut, they simply moved on to the next tournament in some faraway city...and teed up again. They do not stay for the tournament. They pay for their own transportation, lodging, food, and fees. They are on the road, away from their families for months at a time. Even those who make the cut and play on the weekend have no guarantee of enough earnings to offset expenses. It's a tough way to earn a living.

Like professional golfers, who live and die by the ‘money list,' money is how I keep score. It's my score card, my report card as an investor. It's how I tell how well -- or how poorly -- I'm doing. My rich dad said, ‘Making money is my game.' It's my game, too. And that's why I have so much respect for professional golfers... their livelihood depends upon how well they play the game -- as professionals.

In the world of golf there are average and professional golfers. The same is true with investors. The problem with being an average golfer or investor is that average people rarely make any money. Many average investors are in financial trouble today because they are simply that: average. They never turned pro.

When the financial crisis began in 2007, the professional investors were already out (or getting out) of the market. The average investors did as they were told, which is to invest for the long-term, hanging on tight as the Dow plunged from 14,000 to below 7,000, a 50 percent loss in value. Many real estate flippers and homeowners enjoyed the same wild ride.

Tragedy of the Average Investor

The tragedy is that many amateur investors are still clinging to their losses. They hope the market will bounce back. Amateurs are still following the advice of "invest for the long term in a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds." Or they continue to believe "your home is your biggest investment." That is subprime advice for subprime investors.

It seems to me that more people keep track of their golf scores than keep track of their money... their ‘financial' scores. That's why they're amateurs... in the money game.

Even after the crash, the same subprime financial advice continues to be dished out in magazines, newspapers, and on television. Subprime advice continues to flow from real estate and stock market professionals who are not professional investors. They are professional sales people. They live on commissions -- not ROI, the returns on their investments. If they do not sell, they do not eat.

If you're going to turn pro, you will need to upgrade your financial advice. Why continue to invest for the long term while the market is crashing? Why continue to diversify when diversification did not protect investors from the crash?

In 1974, as I was leaving the Marine Corps, I decided I wanted to become an entrepreneur and investor. In other words, I did not want a job with a 401(k). That meant I had to become street smart, rather than school smart. It meant I needed a different set of life skills and better financial mentors if I were to survive on the street.
Just like the life of the pro golfers, there were long stretches of losses, no wins, no money or security.

In early 1985, things got so bad that Kim and I were temporarily homeless. I still remember leaving her in San Diego with only $2 for the week, while I traveled to Australia to put a deal together. Somehow we survived the year. In December of 1985 we finally made $1,500 after a year's worth of losses. That year was a great qualifying school. Today, even in this tough economy, our investments continue to grow. This crisis is a good time for professionals and a bad time for amateurs.

Not Good Enough

Years ago, I asked my rich dad, "What is the difference between a professional and an amateur?" His reply was, "Professionals know their best is not good enough. They always want to do better." He paused before continuing and said, "When someone says, ‘I'll do my best' or ‘I'll give it my best shot' or ‘I'll try,' they've already lost. Those are not words of a winner."

In the world of ‘the best,' your best is never good enough. If you're going to be a winner in life, you have to constantly go beyond your best. Most people are happy being average. Most are happy being faceless in a sea of faces. That's why 10 percent always win 90 percent of the rewards. I get up every day, grateful for what I have accomplished, yet looking forward to doing better. I want do better than my (previous) best everyday. It's not about the money anymore. I have enough money. I just love the game of making money.

Today I give most of my money away...but I will not give up the game of money. I play the game because the game is always better than me...and my best will never be good enough. I continue to work hard to become better at a game I love.

I once read a book on golf that said, "People say amateurs play for the love of the game and professionals play for money. That is not true. Amateurs are amateurs because they do not love the game enough. When it is cold and rainy, a professional golfer will play. The amateur will not. When they are sick, the professional will play. The amateur stays in bed. When they are losing, the professional will practice harder and enter more tournaments. The amateur will quit and take up tennis."

It matters little if the game is golf, tennis, or money. Ten percent of the people will always make 90 percent of the money. When the markets began crashing in 2007, the money did not disappear. Ninety percent of the money went to 10 percent of the investors.

A financial crisis is a great time for professional investors and a horrible time for average ones. If you're going to invest, don't be average. It's time to turn pro... or take up tennis.